Although the Grand National has changed considerably over the past few years, a deep dive into previous winners still provides some great clues in finding a winner.
The following analysis applies to the last ten renewals of the Grand National from 2015-2025.
Age 7-9
Modern Grand National winners are getting younger. Every winner since 2015 has been aged between 7-9 years old. By contrast, a staggering 20/21 winners between 1994-2014 were aged between 9-12.
2nd and 3rd Season Chasers
9/10 winners were in either their second or third season racing over fences. The only exception to the rule was 2022 winner Noble Yeats, who was still a novice.
Less Than 14 Career Runs
We've established that modern Grand National winners aren't exactly veterans. In fact, 9/10 winners had between 7-13 career races over the jumps before their Aintree triumph.
The only exception to the rule was Tiger Roll in 2019, who won repeated his triumph as a relative veteran with 19 career races over fences.
Limited Exposure Over "Marathon" Distances
That traditional profile of a Grand National winner being a battle-hardened veteran with bags of experience over marathon distances simply doesn't ring true anymore.
8/10 National winners had no more than one career run over a distance of 3 miles 3 furlongs or further. Again, it's Tiger Roll who proves the exception to the rule, having had four starts over this distance or further before his 2018 win.
On the flip side Minella Times (2021) and Noble Yeats (2022) had no career experience over further than 3 miles before their Aintree triumph.
Run in the last 84 days
You want a horse that's been prepared for the big race without disruption. A big clue here lies in how recently your horse has been raced.
One For Arthur won the 2017 National off a break of 84 days, which is a particularly long break between runs. Of the 27 horses given a longer break than that, only Minella Indo managed to finish in the money.
3 or more runs in the season
10/10 winners since 2015 have had 3-7 runs in the jump racing season prior to their triumph at Aintree. Only four horses have paid an each-way return off less than three runs. The two who managed it after just one race finished in the first four home in the previous years' National.
Conclusions
The above insights provide a refreshingly different profile of horses we can expect to see in the shortlist of potential winners.
The Grand National is no longer the test of pure jumping ability it once was, and so the profile of horse who has been successful has changed. We're now looking for horses with a bit of youth on their side, as well as the pre-requisite stamina.
They will still require a reasonable amount of experience over fences to take to Aintree's unique challenge, but preference would be for horses that haven't been over exposed to the handicapper over marathon distances.
If you've followed my blog over the years you will know that I've placed a lot of stock on proven stamina. This trend has changed, but the clues are still there and I'll cover that in my next blog.
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