Stamina and Key Trials

If you've followed this blog for a while you'll know that my #1 rule for picking a National bet is to pick a stayer.

Up until 2021 I shortlisted horses with sufficient stamina based on two criteria; 

Posted a career each-way return of 3m 4f or further, or...

Had a career top five finish in at least one "key trial"

From 1994-2019, only three winners failed to hit at least one of the above career marks. But the three winners from 2021-2023 truly broke that traditional mould. 

A big clue as to "why?" lies in the increasing dominance of Irish trained runners in major UK jump races, and the fact that races over distances further than three miles are quite a rarity in the Irish jump racing calendar. 

In hindsight, the signs of an emerging profile of Irish trained National contender were already there from the previous two editions of the race. Pleasant Company and Magic of Light - both runners-up to Tiger Roll in 2018 and 2019 respectively - were unexposed over marathon distances, but had shown form in high profile three mile handicaps over in Ireland. 

Having assessed the career experience of all horses who paid an each-way return over the past eight renewals from 2015-2024, we can pay close attention to the following prominent long distance races (all are run over a distance of 3 miles or further).

These 'key trials' are as follows... 

Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase - 3m 6f, run at the Cheltenham Festival in March

Paddy Power Chase - Run over 3 miles at Leopardstown in late December 

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 3m 2.5f, run on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival

Irish National - 3m 5f, run at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday

Becher Chase - 3m 2f, run over the same Aintree fences as the Grand National in early December

BobbyJo Chase - 3m 1f, run at Fairyhouse in February

Grand National - 4m 2.5f

Coral Gold Cup - 3m 2f, run at Newbury in late November.

Ultima Handicap - 3m 1f, run on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival in March

Welsh National - 3m 5f, run at Chepstow in late December

Theystes Chase - 3m 1fm run at Gowran Park in January

Scottish National - 4m, run at Ayr in April

Up until recent years, we really looked no further than the three 'Celtic' Nationals, the Becher Chase and the Coral Gold Cup (formerly the Hennessy Chase) for horses with the form lines that turned out National winners year after year.  

In recent years a new set of races have emerged as much more predictive pointers towards Grand National success, They feature a mix of top Irish Handicaps, three races from the Cheltenham Festival, the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury and two high profile races run over the famous Aintree fences.

The fact is that since 2015, every winner bar Noble Yeats, and 32/36 horses finishing among the first four home had posted, at the very least, a career top five finish in at least one of the above races. 

You can extend this criteria further since COVID. 13/16 horses finishing in the 1-2-3-4 in the past four renewals have posted a first or second place finish in one of the above trials.

So, while we're always helpless to the possibility of chance, it is still key to consider proven stamina in these key trials when formulating my Grand National shortlist for 2025.

Here's a list of horses with notable form lines in the above races...

I Am Maximus - Won 2024 Grand National

Nick Rockett - Won 2025 Bobbyjo Chase

Hewick - Won 2022 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m 5f 

Minella Indo - Won 2021 Gold Cup, 2nd 2022 Gold Cup, 3rd 2024 

Minella Cocooner - 3rd 2024 Irish National

Conflated - 3rd 2023 Gold Cup

Stumpdown - Won 2025 Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase

Beauport - Won 2024 Midlands National at Uttoxeter over 4m 2f 

Bravemansgame - 2nd 2023 Gold Cup

Threeunderthrufive - 4th 2023 Scottish National

Perceval Legallois - Won 2024 Paddy Power Chase

Kandoo Kid - Won 2024 Coral Gold Cup

Intense Raffles - Won 2024 Irish National, 2nd 2025 Bobbyjo Chase

Broadway Boy - 2nd 2024 Coral Gold Cup

Coko Beach - 2nd 2023 Becher Chase

Monbeg Genius - 3rd 2023 Coral Gold Cup, 4th 2024 Welsh National

Vanillier - 2nd 2023 Grand National, 2nd 2023 & 2024 Bobbyjo Chase

Twig - 2nd 2024 Ultima H'cap

It's an admittedly long shortlist, but there's a few notable exclusions in here. It would be a surprise to me if our winner isn't in there somewhere.